USDA slashes 2018-19 global oilseeds output view to 599.6 mln tn

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The US Department of Agriculture has slashed its estimate for global oilseeds production in 2018-19 to 599.6 mln tn, lower by 4.4 mln tn from its previous forecast, the agency said in its November report.

The world oilseed crop is seen declining due to lower output estimates for soybean, cottonseed, peanuts and mustard seed. However, the fall is partly offset by expectation of a higher output of sunflower seed, the report said.

The agency lowered its global soybean output view by 2 mln tn, to 367.50 mln tn.

“Global soybean production is reduced 2.0 mln tn with lower production for the US and Argentina partly offset by increases for China, India, and Ukraine,” the report said.

For output of US soybean, the agency lowered its estimate to 125.18 mln tn, down 2.45 mln tn from its October projection, due to lower crop yield in Iowa and Illinois, the report said. The country is the world’s largest producer of soybean.

Soybean output for China is pegged at 16 mln tn, up from 15 mln tn according to its previous projection.

Soybean production estimates for Argentina–the third largest producer–has also been scaled down to 55.50 mln tn from the previous projection of 57.00 mln tn. However, the output view for Brazil, world’s second largest producer, has been kept unchanged at 120.50 mln tn.

The agency has also scaled down its view for global soybean exports by nearly 2 mln tn from its previous estimate to 155.44 mln tn in 2018-19. Exports of US soybean are estimated to reduce by 4.4 mln tn to 51.71 mln tn in 2018-19.  

The agency has reduced its projection for global soybean imports to 152.27 mln tn from 154.32 mln tn viewed earlier, mainly because of a cut in estimates for China. It lowered the projection for China, the world’s largest importer of the oilseed, by 4 mln tn to 90 mln tn in 2018-19.

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast US soybean price to move in a range of $7.60-$9.60 per bushel through the year.

Global ending stocks of soybean in 2018-19 is pegged higher at 112.08 mln tn from 110.04 mln tn, estimated earlier.  

cogencis.com